Staying Sober on the Purple Highway: The Swing States Round 4

The Democratic Party surely hoped, as a result of its convention, that its presentation of an ethnically and culturally diverse America validating its ticket would have broad appeal to a national audience. It won me over, as I am sure it did for practically every Democrat in the country. Practically every Democrat, I am also sure, doesn’t want to go into the fall intoxicated by  Vice-President Biden’s 8-9 point lead in the polls.

That’s why I am asking you to stay sober on the Purple Highway!

Polling guru Nate Silver of 538.com put his stamp on what is going through everybody’s mind – don’t count Trump out. The race will tighten, he said. Regardless of the popular vote, the road to an electoral college majority and victory goes through a group of swing states that Hilary Clinton lost to Donald Trump in 2016, including Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Arizona. 

I analyzed the polling this spring in these six states in Round 3 of the Purple Highway.

Here’s an update for these six highly competitive states, including some significant changes since I last wrote about these states.

FLORIDA: REALLY IN PLAY ?

The most significant rating change in the swing states came on July 24th when the nationally respected Cook Political Report changed its Florida Electoral College Rating from Toss-Up to Lean Democrat following several months of decline in President Trump’s support. There isn’t really a question why: This graph depicting Florida’s COVID-19 devastation tells the story:

Here’s the state of polling in Florida since mid-July. ((LV= Likely Voter; RV=Registered Voter)

FLORIDA RECENT PRESIDENTIAL POLLING
POLL	DATE	SAMPLE	BIDEN	TRUMP
Redfield&Wilton	Aug.6	1280 LV	48	41
OnMessage	Aug.2-4	400 LV	49	49
Change Rsch	Aug.7-9	469 LV	50	44
Zogby	July 21-23	811 LV	43	43
MasonDixon	July 20-23	625 LV	50	46
Morning Consult	July 17-26	3,760 LV	49	46
CNN	July 18-24	880 RV	51	46
Quinnipiac	July 16-20	924 RV	51	38

My May 11 picture of Florida showed an average lead of 3 points in 4 polls. These 8 polls average a Biden lead of nearly 9 points. The Quinnipiac July Florida poll lead for Biden was 13 points. Was Quinnipiac an outlier? This pollster was one of the four polls in the May 11 picture, and Biden led by 4 in the Quinnipiac Florida poll then. If one took Quinnipiac out of the list, Biden’s lead would still be four points. The sober analysis: the election is very close in Florida and Trump is far from out of it. He won in 2016 by 1.2 points.

MICHIGAN, PENNSYLVANIA, WISCONSIN

The most recent polling in these critical states is presented

	MICHIGAN PRESIDENTIAL POLLING
POLL	DATE	SAMPLE	BIDEN	TRUMP
Redf&Wiltn	Aug.6-18	812 LV	50	38
Civiqs	Aug.13-17	631 LV	49	46
GQR Rsch	J.30-Aug.4	1245 LV	52	43
Change Rsch	Aug.7-9	413 LV	48	43
You Gov	J.27-Aug.6	761 RV	47	43
EPIC-MRA	J.25-30	600 LV	51	40

	PENNSYLVANIA PRESIDENTIAL POLLING
POLL	DATE	SAMPLE	BIDEN	TRUMP
Red&Wilt	Aug.16-17	1006 LV	48	41
Civiqs	A.13-17	617 LV	51	44
Muhlnbg	A.11-17	416 LV	49	45
OnMsge	A.2-4	400 LV	50	46
ChgeRsch	A.7-9	456 LV	48	44
Emerson	A.8-10	843 LV	52	43

	WISCONSIN PRESIDENTIAL POLLING
POLL	DATE	SAMPLE	BIDEN	TRUMP
Red&Wilt	A.16-19	672 LV	49	39
Civiqs	A.13-17	754 LV	51	45
OnMsge	A.2-4	400 LV	47	47
MorngCslt	A.7-16	788 LV	49	43
ChgeRsch	A.7-9	384 LV	47	43
Marquette	A.4-9	694 LV	50	46

There are six polls each in these three States Hilary Clinton lost by two-tenths of a point in Michigan, seven-tenths of a point in Pennsylvania, and eight-tenths of a point in Wisconsin.

Biden leads by an average of 49.5-42.2, or 7.3 points, in Michigan. His lead in May in Michigan was 7.6 points, essentially identical. The Vice-President leads by an average of 49.7-43.8 in Pennsylvania, or six points. His lead in Pennsylvania in May was 5.6 points, also essentially identical. In Wisconsin Biden leads 48.8-44.0, or about five points ( I removed an outlier poll in Wisconsin showing Biden with a 12pt.lead). His lead in Wisconsin in May was 3.4 points; the current lead is slightly higher.

ARIZONA AND NORTH CAROLINA

I am presenting the summary of 538.com’s scorecards for Arizona and North Carolina, which 538’s Nate Silver anticipates will become dead heats as the election tightens in the fall.

ARIZONA                                             NORTH CAROLINA

Hilary Clinton lost Arizona by 3 1/2 points in 2016, and lost North Carolina by 3.7 points. It’s a given that Trump will fight tooth and nail to hold these states. The Democratic Party has some unique strengths down-ballot in both states. Astronaut Mark Kelly, husband of former Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords who was seriously disabled by an assassination attempt (and gave a very impressive speech at the Democratic Convention), holds a commanding lead over the appointed Republican Martha McSally, who lost a statewide Arizona Senate race to Kristen Sinema in 2018.  In the last twelve polls, dating from late July to just days ago, Kelly leads McSally 50-41, an average of nine points. Biden, Harris, and Kelly offer Democrats quite a team to compete with the Republicans. The Democratic Party has become extraordinarily competitive in Arizona.

North Carolina was a disappointing loss for the Democrats in 2016, but the Democrats have two other outstanding  statewide candidates, including a candidate for the United States Senate, Cal Cunningham, running against incumbent Republican Tom Tillis. In fifteen polls stretching back to mid-July, Cunningham has an average lead of 46.3- 40.0, or six points ( and I dropped one outlier where Cunningham led by 16).

The Democrats also have incumbent Governor Roy Cooper running for re-election. According to Real Clear Politics, Cooper leads his Republican opponent Dan Forest by ten points, 50-40. Forest is actually the incumbent Lieutenant Governor, which must make for some interesting North Carolina cabinet meetings  (well, maybe Forest doesn’t attend). The Democrats have four solid candidates on the ticket, Biden, Harris, Cunningham, and Cooper. This may be the moment for the Democratic Party in North Carolina.

The Presidential Election is 71 days away.  Stay sober on the Purple Highway.