Turnout Update- NYC Mayoral Primary- My Estimate-35 Percent

The New York City Board of Elections has reported 798,000 in person votes in the New York City Democratic mayoral primary, with about 97% of the scanners from the voting machines recorded as of June 23rd, the day after the primary. The Board is also providing a daily update of mail ballots. As of Thursday evening, June 24th, there were 111,000 mail ballots received from Democrats https://bit.ly/3debRXF . Mail ballots are valid if postmarked by Election Day, June 22nd, if received by June 29th. Deliveries of additional mail ballots will drop off. Voters will get a chance to cure them after notice of a defect from the Board of Elections, meaning the mass invalidations of mail ballots that occurred in New York after the Presidential primaries in June 2020 is unlikely. Affidavit ballots, which historically have been one percent of the vote, are also not counted yet.

The total vote in the Democratic primary could reach 925,000 or more- a considerable turnout, on par with the 2018 Democratic gubernatorial primary in 2018 ( 900,000) and almost reaching the Clinton-Sanders 2016 matchup (1,000,000). State Board of Elections enrollment records showed 3.349 million active registered Democrats in New York City ( along with 398,000 inactive). As I pointed out in my recent column, official enrollment records are likely to overestimate how many voters are still living at the address of their enrollment https://jimbrennanscommentaries.com/2021/06/21/voter-participation-rates-in-nyc-are-higher-than-reported-for-some-complex-reasons/ , possibly by 15% or more.

I estimate turnout in the Democratic Mayoral primary, adjusted for inaccuracies in enrollment records, will reach 35% for the June 22nd primary.

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