Democrats Can Still Win the Midterms, Even with Republican Gerrymandering

Despite two politically damaging Court decisions and an all-out gerrymandering war, the Republicans have still not knocked out the Democrats’ chances of retaking the House in the 2026 midterms.

The Democrats must defeat more Republicans than anticipated and must hold seats of incumbents seriously disadvantaged by the Republican gerrymanders of their districts, but the toxic troubles of Trump and the Republicans still give the Democrats a good chance to win. To say nothing of the United States Senate, which is also in play for the Democrats.

Democrats Are Competitve

The fact that the Democrats are still competitive in the House is amazing! Gerrymanders by Republicans in Texas, Missouri, Ohio, North Carolina, and Florida carved up 14 Democratic districts, but the Democrats still have good to strong chances to hold on in many, perhaps even a majority, of those districts, benefited by their records and strong candidacies at the top of the Democratic tickets in Texas and Ohio. In California, the five-seat voter approved redistricting may enable the Democrats to win at least three and probably four seats (one Republican remains highly competitive), and the Democrats will gain a seat in Utah due to a court order.

There are also many vulnerable Republican seats in states where Democratic governors are running for re-election in Pennsylvania, New York, and Arizona. There are also solid Democratic candidates for Governor and Senate in Iowa where several Republican seats are vulnerable.  

The Democrats started 2026 with a need to win three seats to take back the House of Representatives. Following the Supreme Court’s gutting of the Voting Rights Act in Louisiana v. Callais at the end of April, three Southern states have eliminated majority-Black districts in Tennessee, Louisiana, and Alabama. The Democrats will start a minimum of six seats behind as the fight begins over several dozen competitive districts. The Democrats’ effort to redistrict Virginia (approved by the voters) to gain four seats was overruled by the Virginia Supreme Court.

The National Situation and Gerrymandering

I take a look now at the national situation, starting with the gerrymandered states.

                                               TEXAS

Donald Trump began the redistricting nightmare when he asked Governor Abbott and the Texas legislature to give him five seats to rig the 2026 midterms to the Republicans’ advantage. The Legislature and the Governor did just that, but two Democratic incumbents, Henry Cuellar in the 28^th, and Vicente Gonzalez in the 34^th, may be able to survive, aided by the strength of James Talarico, candidate for the U.S. Senate, who is polling in a virtual dead heat against the scandal-plagued Republican Ken Paxton. In the 35^th district, also gerrymandered by the Republicans, there is no incumbent, but the Democrats have nominated a strong candidate, Sherriff Johny Garcia. Pollsters at the national level show Hispanics voting Democratic on the generic congressional ballot by fifteen to twenty points, indicating the shift to Trump by Hispanics in 2024 has mostly eroded.

Here’s a look at the Texas districts. The margins shown are the recalculated results of the new seats after the gerrymandering, so T + 10, for instance, means Trump won by ten points in the House seat redistricted by the Republicans in Texas, or B + 10 means Biden won that district by ten points, recalculated:

                                                           OHIO

Democratic incumbent Marcy Kaptur from the 9^th Congressional district, who has served 44 years in Congress and is known as St. Marcy, barely survived 2024, winning by less than one point while Trump carried her district by six points. The Ohio Republicans gerrymandered the district again in 2025, bringing her to a Trump + 10 district. Trump beat Biden there in 2020 by 7 points. Democratic Congressmember Greg Landsman of the 1^st district was also gerrymandered but is less threatened.

The Democrats benefit from two strong candidates for Governor and U.S. Senate. Dr. Amy Acton, the former Ohio Health Commissioner during COVID, is running against Vivek Ramaswamy for Governor and is virtually even in the polls. Former U.S. Senator Sherrod Brown, who was defeated in 2024 by four points, is attempting to make a comeback against the new incumbent, John Husted, who took J.D. Vance’s place. Here is Ohio:

                                             FLORIDA

Governor DeSantis and the Florida legislature did a new gerrymander of the Florida Congressional districts with the goal of eliminating four of the remaining 8 Democratic districts out of 28 seats. There is still a chance the Florida Supreme Court will overrule this action as violating the Florida State Constitution’s fair district language, but the Florida court has given the Republicans wide latitude to do what they want in past redistricting decisions.

The new gerrymander has forced the Democratic incumbents to play a game of musical chairs, but there are still strong chances several, if not all of them, can hold on. Here’s a look at the electoral history in these districts:

Congressmember Jared Moskowitz is running in the 25^th district, which Biden won in 2020. Lois Frankel, the incumbent in the 22^nd district, has chosen to run someplace else, leaving the seat open for the August Florida primaries. Trump did well in 2024, but Biden won here in 2020. Kathy Castor and Darren Soto, the Democratic members in the 14^th and 9^th districts, are choosing to fight it out in the newly gerrymandered districts, and cannot be ruled out. Certainly, the Democrats have good chances in two of these four districts.

                                        NORTH CAROLINA

The Republican Legislature did a mid-decade redistricting in 2025 with the hope of eliminating Don Davis, the Democratic incumbent in the 1^st Congressional district. Congressmember Davis survived by two points in 2024, but the new gerrymander puts the district even further to the right, with Trump winning there by nearly twelve points in 2024 and seven points in 2020. The district is 32% Black and 40% persons of color. Davis will benefit from his incumbency and the fact that former Governor Roy Cooper is running for United States Senate. Here’s the North Carolina dynamic:

 Democrats Are On Offense

The Cook Political Report categorizes their election ratings as Solid Democrat or Republican, Likely Democrat or Republican, Lean Democrat or Republican, or Toss-Up. For 2026, the Ratings table shows 14 Republican seats as toss-ups, 2 Republican seats as Lean Republican, 14 Republican seats as Likely Republican, and 188 seats as Solid Republican. The Democrats need to win at least ten of these seats, and probably more to be safe given the odds they cannot win every incumbent whose district has been gerrymandered by the Republicans. Here are those ratings:

Some of the Republican incumbents above have proved tough to beat. Congressmember David Valadao of the 22^nd district in California is one of two remaining Republicans who voted to impeach Trump in 2021, but Trump has never sought to punish him because the Democrats are so competitive there. Valadao was elected in 2012, lost in 2018, but made a comeback in 2020 and survived efforts to defeat him in 2022 and 2024. The new district approved by California voters improves Democrats’ chances.

Congressmember Mike Fitizpatrick, Republican from the 1^st district in Pennsylvania, has survived despite Trump losing there in 2016, 2020, and 2024. Congressmember Mike Lawler of the 17^th District in New York defeated Democratic incumbent Sean Patrick Maloney in 2022 despite Biden carrying the district in 2020 by ten points, and Kamala Harris carrying the district by less than one point in 2024. Here’s a look at  some of the Democrats’ best chances in Toss-Up or Lean Republican districts:

		2024	2020
Arizona 1st	Open	T + 3	B + 1.5
Arizona 6th	Ciscomani	T + 0.7	B + 0.1
California 22nd	Valadao	T + 2	B + 17
Colo. 8th	Evans	T + 2	B+ 5
Iowa 1st	Miller-Meeks	T + 8	T + 3
Iowa 3rd	Nunn	T + 4.6	T + 0.4
Michigan 7th	Barrett	T + 1.3	B + 0.5
Michigan 10th	Open	T + 6	T + 1
Nebraska 2nd	Open	H + 4	B + 6
New Jersey 7th	Kean	T + 1.2	B + 4
New York 17th	Lawler	H + 0.3	B +10
Pennsylvania 1st	Fitzpatrick	H + 0.3	B + 5
Pennsylvania 7th	McKenzie	T + 3	B + 0.6
Pennsylvania 8th	Bresnahan	T + 9	T + 3
Pennsylvania 10th	Perry	T + 5	T + 4
Virginia 2nd	Kiggans	T + 0.2	B + 2
Wisconsin 3rd	Van Orden	T + 7	T + 5

There look to be strong top of the ticket Democratic candidates (or weak Republican ones) in Arizona, California, Colorado, Iowa, New York and Pennsylvania to help downballot Democrats. In Michigan and Wisconsin party nominations are still unsettled. I did not include Republicans on the list of Cook’s Likely Republican Seats, but the Democrats need to win a few there or hold on to seats they have now in that list too.

And Many Americans Are Simply Finished With Trump and His Ilk

Even if Trump manages a shallow bargain with Iran and stabilizes gas prices within a few months, there will still be enough Americans who think the war with Iran was a mistake that it won’t carry politically past his base.

And then there are the other reasons to change: put a check on an out-of-control President, halt the corruption and not let Jan 6 rioters get money, repeal the tariffs, help Americans with health care, help our  schools and colleges, help Americans with housing and child care, tax the rich, save social security, stop deporting migrants who’ve done nothing wrong,you name it.

There are still plenty of reasons to be optimistic the Democrats can take the House.